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Jul 13 2024

Local play to support Philippine GGR growth

Maybank Securities expects the local gaming industry in the Philippines to achieve "at least 15%" gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth in 2024.

In a note on Tuesday, the agency said it had maintained a "positive view" of the Philippine gaming sector, expecting GGR growth this year to be "driven by the domestic mass and slot markets" and "rising due to the gradual recovery of the VIP sector led by Korean punters."

Maybank also expects external growth for its massive resort entertainment city in Manila, the capital of the Philippines. This will be "driven by the opening of Solare Resort North and the recent surge in e-gaming," wrote analyst Raffy Mendoza.

The Philippines' GGR, which includes non-casino businesses, grew about 33% year-over-year in 2023 to PHP 285.3 billion ($4.97 billion).

"Most of the growth" came from land-based sites, accounting for about 80% of the industry's GGR last year, up 23% from 2022, according to Maybank.

However, the e-provided gaming segment "expanded the most" in 2023, achieving "a high market share of 5% to 12%" with PHP 33.2 billion, which grew "3.2 times year-over-year."

"The combination of mass table and slot machines in FY23 represents 64% of Entertainment City's GGR, indicating continued growth in domestic demand," Mr Mendoza said.

"We believe this trend in bulk and slot GGRs will continue due to increased private consumption," the analyst said.

"This should bode well for industry players, as retention rates in large volumes and slots are historically less volatile and offer higher margins compared to the VIP segment," he added.

Maybank expects VIP contributions to the industry's GGR to continue to decline this year as Chinese arrivals in the first three months of 2024 are "only 24%" of the level in the first quarter of 2019.

"Nevertheless, we believe it is driving a gradual recovery in the VIP sector, with Korean tourists already reaching 459,000 in the first three months of 2024, or 88 percent of their first quarter 2019 levels," the agency said.

Pagcor expects the domestic gaming industry to post total gaming revenue of 336.38 billion PHP this year, up 17.9% from 2023.